Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 18.230695 22.056372 26.303847 31.343748 37.134012 43.551125 51.172727
2025-03-09 12.451381 17.342513 23.376690 31.254117 41.142040 53.013301 68.201077
2025-03-16 8.621008 13.534739 20.149469 29.464054 41.971841 57.898523 79.383377
2025-03-23 6.990050 12.104708 19.487942 30.511863 46.083491 66.782487 95.782048
2025-03-30 5.434092 10.374359 18.007957 30.055130 47.885315 72.524356 108.221723
2025-04-06 4.705892 9.750876 17.995546 31.598728 52.483242 82.219196 126.412614
2025-04-13 3.437872 7.905077 15.733306 29.365721 51.226470 83.458796 132.788374
2025-04-20 2.901492 7.253667 15.310895 29.935352 54.167083 90.830094 148.154937
2025-04-27 2.501309 6.770103 15.088280 30.768207 57.523502 98.941887 164.929592
2025-05-04 2.198197 6.414899 15.033126 31.849733 61.313481 107.862646 183.262237
2025-05-11 1.893463 5.978035 14.745625 32.460155 64.323592 115.681403 200.222673
2025-05-18 1.542074 5.331615 13.930131 31.987916 65.415497 120.472337 212.682628
2025-05-25 1.196178 4.625564 12.944573 31.228548 66.218505 125.289761 226.176508
2025-06-01 0.958186 4.134759 12.348202 31.182270 68.338874 132.484460 243.971989
2025-06-08 0.681238 3.394660 11.004643 29.398047 67.055634 133.833696 252.337910
2025-06-15 0.586611 3.218239 10.999069 30.444129 71.186238 144.638714 276.655781
2025-06-22 0.453511 2.829997 10.357296 29.988223 72.334031 150.265847 292.552471
2025-06-29 0.406583 2.765707 10.581522 31.529066 77.553153 163.352832 321.542494
2025-07-06 0.271295 2.216543 9.285392 29.300054 74.903989 162.093203 325.926479
2025-07-13 0.225337 2.067359 9.149587 29.868660 78.094923 171.655832 349.391375
2025-07-20 0.191407 1.959676 9.120824 30.700024 81.895587 182.514673 375.509361
2025-07-27 0.166116 1.885191 9.185849 31.779626 86.301277 194.695671 404.376320
2025-08-03 0.138245 1.769236 9.079866 32.388968 89.705280 205.104186 430.417517